At 05:48am on Thursday 1st March, National Grid issued a Gas Deficit Warning for 1st March. The warning has been issued following extremely high weather driven demand and a series of supply outages both domestically and to Norwegian infrastructure. This has led National Grid to forecast an end of day supply deficit.
National Grid has already started to scale back off-peak exit capacity within all NTS Exit Zones for the gas day of 1st March 2018 from 13:00pm.
National Grid has a requirement to purchase additional gas supplies and has issued a notice for local gas suppliers and shippers to post offers to sell gas on the On-the-Day Commodity Market (OCM) locational market. National Grid will also accept demand side response offers via the OCM, as well as offers for single or multiple day trades via the Over-the-Counter (OTC) market.
Likelihood of Disruption
Before any interruption to domestic gas consumption occurs, OFGEM analysis suggests that between 60% and 70% of all gas supplies would need to be lost. Putting this into context, a 60% loss in supply capacity would represent losing all of the UK’s LNG supply, all imports over the interconnectors with Belgium, the Netherlands and the Republic of Ireland, and a loss of 11.4% of the UK Continental Shelf production. Although the events leading to this physical disruption are highly unlikely, the impact is severe, with knock on impact onto electricity supply and economic consequences.
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